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News Coverage of 2004 Democratic Primary Campaign

We analyzed two local papers (NH Union Leader, SC Post and Courier), two national newspapers (New York Times, Washington Post), and four national television networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) to understand how they covered the 2004 Democratic presidential primary campaign.

First, reporters talk more than candidates. 59% of the statements in these stories were from reporters themselves (not attributed to any other source). Candidates were quoted or paraphrased in 26% of news story statements, and 15% of statements were attributed to others (candidate supporters, voters, or experts).

Second, these stories all dwelt on the horse race. 66% of statements in news stories focused on the horse race (campaign strategies, polls, campaign events); 22% focused on the candidates' character, and 12% on policy. Contrasting the three media, national newspapers focused the more on horse race than national television or local newspapers; television news focused more on character than the other two media, and local newspapers discussed policy most (but even then it was only 16% of newspaper story statements).

This neglect of issues contrasts sharply with the candidates' messages: 60% of statements in Democratic primary television spot statements concerned policy (and 40% character) and 73% of Democratic primary debate statements addressed policy (and 27% character). The candidates focus on the issues; the news coverage focuses first on horse race, second on character, and lastly on issues.

Third, the four most common forms of horse race coverage are (1) campaign strategies (40%), polls (21%), electability/viability of candidates (10%), and campaign events such as rallies (9%). Comparing media, the largest difference was between national TV news and newspapers. Both local and national newspapers devoted 37% of their story statements to campaign strategies; national television news discussed campaign strategies in 62% of their statements. Newspapers focused more on polls (31% of local newspaper statements, 38% of national newspaper statements) than television news (18% on polls).

Fourth, the tone was balanced in newspaper stories: 50% positive statements and 50% negative or critical comments. Only national television news had more positive than negative statements in its coverage; both local and national newspapers had more negative than positive comments in their news stories about the 2004 Democratic primary campaign.

The balanced tone of these news stories is actually much more negative than the candidates' messages. In 2004 primary TV spots, 79% of statements were positive and only 21% were attacks. In 2004 primary debates, 60% of statements were positive, 36% were attacks, and 4% defended against an attack. If people believe campaigns are negative, it could well be due to the fact that news coverage of political campaigns is more negative than the campaigns themselves.