General Campaign - TV Spots - Content - PresidentialCampaign2004 -The Messages and Their Analysis - William Benoit

Republicans Attack More on Character than Democrats

Accusations have been traded recently about which political party is more likely to start attacks on character. While past performance is not always a guarantee of future performance – especially when we are comparing the past performance of different candidates with the future performance of other members of the same political party – it does provide some hard evidence on the question.

William Benoit of the Department of Communication at the University of Missouri has analyzed thousands of political campaign messages from 1948-2000. He found that in television spots, debates, and direct mail brochures, Republicans are significantly more likely to attack on character, and less likely to attack on policy, than Democrats.

In general television spots from 1952-2000, 44% of Republican attacks concerned character and 56% were about policy. For Democrats, on the other hand, only 33% of their attacks were on character and 67% addressed policy.

In general debates (1960, 1976-2000), Republicans attacked on character 23% of the time while 77% of their attacks were about policy. However, Democrats attacked even less on character, only 16% of the time (and 84% of Democratic attacks in general debates were about policy).

The same pattern held true in general direct mail advertising. Republicans discussed character in 29% of their attacks and policy in 71%. In contrast, when Democrats attacked they were talking about character 16% of the time and policy 84% of the time.

Only in nomination acceptance addresses was the pattern different; there was no statistically significant difference in the topic of attack in these speeches. Democrats attacked slightly more on character than Republicans (41% to 37%) and a little less on policy (59% to 63%).

Although these candidates may not reflect past campaign behavior, we can compare Republican George W. Bush's topics of attack in 2000 with Democrat Al Gore's messages. In acceptance addresses, general TV spots, and general debates combined, Bush directed 57% of his attacks to policy and 43% to character. Gore, in keeping with Democrats generally, devoted 84% of his attacks in these three message forms to policy and only 16% to character (and these differences are statistically significant).

No crystal ball is perfect, but based on the past performance of presidential candidates – including President Bush's 2000 campaign messages – it seems likely that Republicans will attack more on character than Democrats. This is potentially important, because as a group, presidential candidates who attack more on character than their opponents are significantly more likely to lose elections. Emphasizing character in one's attacks does not guarantee a loss, but it makes a loss more likely.

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