Primaries - Debate Content - PresidentialCampaign2004 -The Messages and Their Analysis - William Benoit

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What do Primary Debates Talk About?

The statements made by candidates in presidential primary debates can be analyzed to determine their functions and topics.

Functions of Primary Debates

Candidates can try to accomplish three functions in debates.

Acclaims are statements which discuss the advantages or benefits of the sponsor (positive)

In a Democratic primary debate from 2004 (9/9/03), Senator Joe Lieberman acclaimed his position on race:

"I'm going to talk about race and keep marching with Dr. King and his spirit for jobs and freedom and equality until the dream that Dr. King enunciated 40 years ago is fully realized. This is from my heart. This will define my presidency. "

Identifying himself with Dr. Martin Luther King and proclaiming his goals of increasing jobs, freedom and equality should improve his desirability. Later in that debate Senator Bob Graham touted his understanding of people from diverse backgrounds:

"I happen to come from a state that is very diverse. In fact, the Miami community has the highest percentage of persons who were born outside the United States of any community in this nation. I understand, by having served and lived in a diverse society, what is required to build the one America that we all seek."

This kind of person could well appeal to those in his audience. Acclaims stress your advantages or benefits and encourage the audience to prefer you over opponents.

Attacks are statements which address the disadvantages or costs of an opponent (negative)

Representative Dick Gephardt, campaigning in the 2004 Democratic primary, attacked Republican President George W. Bush in a primary debate (9/9/03):

"Well, first, I think we've got to ask a question and that is how many Americans have to lose their jobs before George Bush loses his? This economic program is not working. The tax cuts, which is the only idea he's ever had for the economy, are not working. He only has one idea in his head: tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, followed by tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, followed by tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. And they haven't worked."

This passage attacks the president for creating unemployment and for proposing tax cuts that benefit the rich. Senator John Kerry, in the same debate, attacked Bush on the topic of education:

"We have a president who's walked away from [communities with smaller tax bases], broken his promise and refused to fund No Child Left Behind."

He alludes to Bush's slogan from the 2000 presidential campaign and claims that Bush has not achieved the goal he established. Bush is attacked twice; once for not funding these communities, and once for breaking his promise. These statements, if accepted by the audience, should reduce Bush's apparent desirability. If so, that could help the attacker achieve a net gain in perceived desirability.

Defenses are statements which reject attacks.

In that primary debate Governor Dean responded to the accusation that he said places where blacks live need gun control but places inhabited by whites do not.

"I have never said that African American cities need gun control and white states don't. I have never said that. What I have said is that rural states—and this includes places like Tennessee, perhaps, that have low homicide rates—don't need the same gun laws that urban states do."

If the audience believes his denial, that should help restore his desirability for those who believed he made a racist statement that was attributed to him. Senator Kerry was criticized for having voted to authorize President Bush to use force in Iraq. He attempted to justify (defend) that decision:

"I voted to authorize, it was the right vote. And the reason I mentioned the threat is that we gave—we had to give life to the threat.... The reason I can't tell you to a certainty whether the president misled us is because I don't have any clue what he really knew about it, or whether he was just reading what was put in front of him."

In other words, at the time he voted it appeared to be the proper vote based on the information provided by President Bush.

Analysis of both Republican and Democratic presidential primary debates from 1948-2000 gives us an idea how frequently these functions occur. 64% of the statements in primary debates are acclaims, 32% are attacks, and 4% are defenses.

Topics of Primary Debates

As with television spots, Functional Theory investigates two topics of the statements in presidential primary debates, policy and character.

Policy statements discuss government action and problems amenable to governmental action (issues).

In a debate held August 5, 2003, for example, Representative Dick Gephardt declared that:

"This administration has declared war on the middle class in this country. Eighty-three thousand jobs have been lost a month. This president is the Houdini of economics. Three million jobs have disappeared. He's got the worst record since Herbert Hoover."

These statements, about employment levels, are clear examples of discussion of policy in a primary debate. In that debate Governor Howard Dean talked about his record as governor of Vermont:

"I think you can often tell where someone is going to take you by looking where they've been. In our state, 99 percent of our kids under age 18 have health insurance are eligible for health insurance, 96 percent are signed up. A third of our seniors get prescription benefits. Everybody under the 150 percent of poverty, almost every low wage worker, is covered. And if we can do that in a small rural state, which is 26th in income in the United States of America, surely we can join in the United States."

Health insurance and prescription drug benefits clearly concern policy.

Character statements concern the qualities, traits, or personalities of the candidates.

Senator Bob Graham attacked President Bush's character in this primary debate statement:

"George Bush has lost the trust of the American people. This is the president who repeatedly used misleading information to make the case for war in Iraq. "

This statement is related to the war in Iraq, but the point he is making is not about the policy (e.g., the cost of the war or loss of life) but about Bush's honesty and trustworthiness, his character. Representative Dick Gephardt stressed his humble origins in this statement from the debate:

"My dad was a Teamster and a milk truck driver in St. Louis, Missouri. My mom was a secretary. Neither of them got through high school. My mom died about eight weeks ago. They were great people. Every day that I've been in the House, now 27th year, I've simply tried to represent people like my parents, the people that make this country great, like you."

He does not discuss which policies were at stake when he worked "to represent people like my parents"; this passage is designed to discuss his character. So, the statements from candidates in primary debates can discuss policy or character.

Analysis of the content of primary debates from 1948-2000 reveals that almost twice as many comments concern policy (66%) as character (34%)

Analysis of 2004 Primary Debates

In 2003 and 2004, the Democratic contenders for the White House engaged in 20 primary debates, including one radio debate, from 4/9/03 (DC) to 2/29/04 (NY). Although records of primary debates are not as complete as we would like, it appears as if the primary campaign started earlier than ever before during this campaign.

We content analyzed these debates to understand the nature of these messages. We also compared them to historic presidential primary debates (we have content analyzed presidential primary debates from 1948-2000).

The candidates' statements were mostly positive in these messages, but they attacked a little more than candidates in primary debates from earlier campaigns.

	Acclaims	Attacks	Defenses
2004	60%	36%	4%
1948-2000	64%	32%	4%

When they attacked, they tended to attack President Bush. This is unlike previous elections, in which primary candidates directed most of their attacks to other members of their own political party

	Other Party	Own Party	Status Quo*
2004	70%	16%	14%
1948-2000	30%	47%	24%

*attacks on the SQ did not clearly identify either party, but criticized the establishment, which, particularly in Congress, includes both parties

We also tracked the topic of their statements. Most statements concerned policy issues (e.g., the war on terrorism, jobs and the economy, education, health care), barely one-quarter of the candidates' statements in the 2004 Democratic primary debates were about character (e.g., honesty, leadership ability, compassion).